It hasn't been a quiet holiday week in the hobby.
The discovery of a new T206 Honus Wagner card generated major headlines Monday when Ken Goldin announced a previously unseen example of the world's most sought-after collectible. The grail was held by two brothers who inherited it from their grandfather and had kept it in the family for more than a century.
It’s difficult to quantify the significance of the find without resorting to tired cliché’s, such as comparing it to the unearthing of a new Picasso painting.
But, given the stature of the card, it is truly deserving of the lofty framing.
Add in the story of the card coming from an original cigarette pack and being held, unknown to the world, in the same family for so long, and you have the perfect recipe encompassing the platonic ideal of a “hobby find.”
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As much as the legend of the T206 Wagner is tied to its origin story, the lasting resonance in broader culture is undoubtedly a result of the eye-popping prices paid every time a copy comes up for sale.
And the lore of this Wagner, which has been given a pedigree label of “Shields Family Collection,” will surely be aided by the final price paid when the final hammer falls at Goldin Auctions.
So, what will it go for?
First, let’s take a step back and orient ourselves.
In 2025, one Wagner has changed hands at public auction: A PSA Authentic (Restored) example for $1.98 million. That card was the same copy that was sold in 2023 for $1.968 million.
It was the worst return ever realized by the owner of a Wagner, and just barely kept the oft-touted tradition of no Wagner ever selling for less than it was purchased for alive.
Another copy was set to sell this year at Goldin, however, it failed to meet its reserve price despite a bid of $4.15 million for a PSA 1 (the same grade as this new copy).
In 2024, no Wagner changed hands for the first time in 30 years.
If you treat that $4.15 million bid as an instructive data point, even if the sale was not consummated, it illuminates something crucial about the market for Wagner cards when held in contrast to the other sales in 2023 and 2025: The quality and the story are paramount.
The PSA Authentic (Restored) example is likely in the bottom quartile of desirability of any of the around 60 copies known to exist, due to its lack of a compelling story and restored designation. Throw in the attempt at a quick flip, and it failed to generate the same price appreciation one has come to expect from these assets disguised as cardboard.
When we compare that to the PSA 1 which caught the $4.15 million bid earlier this year (it sold for $282,000 in 2010), which presents much more favorably and owns both a compelling story and a numeric grade, it is easy to see the small group of collectors competing for the holy grail of the hobby are discerning — opting to wait for a copy of higher quality to surface rather than participate in a mad dash for the next available.
The copy selling at Goldin checks the boxes of a great story, a numeric grade sans restoration, and, subjectively, excellent eye appeal (I don’t mine creases as long as they don’t cut through Wagner’s face).
Let’s not forget the card's inclusion in Goldin's Netflix show, "The King of Collectibles."
Billionaires are binge-watchers too, I presume.
It’s the most important card to come to auction in years, with unprecedented media attention and a picture-perfect story.
Where will it end? I could see bidding on this card, which begins at $1 million, getting a bit silly, and clearing $6 million.
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Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct, the premier company for collectible culture.